
Despite the recent run up in prices we’ve seen here in Vancouver over the past several years, which has misled many into thinking they can buy and flip in short periods of time for big profits, real estate should really be thought of as long term investment. And who better to take advice from than someone who’s been in the business for a very long time. Meet George W. Johnson, a 97-year old real estate agent who has been working in the Seattle market for over 74 years!
Johnson’s main piece of advice is “buy a house today if you can, but don’t sell one if you don’t have to”. Real estate is cyclical in its very nature, and Johnson has been witness to many of these booms throughout his 74 year career. The main lesson he says he’s learned though the ups and downs is that after every housing recession the market has “gone higher than the one before”. So the trick is to hold on and weather the storm. This reminds me of some advice I received from a mentor of mine when I was first starting out. He said ‘You’ll never lose money investing in real estate...as long as you’re never forced to sell’ (of course that is assuming you do all your diligence before buying).
Here’s a summary of Johnson’s 4 real-estate tips:
1) Beware of one-company towns: Cities dependent on a single company or industry are more vulnerable to jarring downturns if the economy goes south.
Luckily Vancouver has a well diversified economy fuelled by several different sectors.
2) Don't get greedy. Johnson blames "plain old greed" for the latest real-estate downturn in the US — people got caught up in the enthusiasm of the moment and banks egged them on with cheap loans.
This particular problem refers to what happened south of the border, and we can thank our conservative lending practices here in Canada for saving us from going down that path. However, greed has been a major factor in the Vancouver condo market. I have seen many condo owners/investors try to unsuccessfully sell their overpriced properties during the height of the market, and then get caught having to sell for much less when the market has cooled off.
3) Timing is everything. "In this market, any young person that hasn't bought a house ought to buy one," Johnson says. "A buyers market doesn't come along that often … you just can hardly help but make money on whatever you buy today at the prices they are." Johnson says rates are only going to go up over the long term, so borrowing will cost more.
Although I’d say our market here in Vancouver at the moment is more of a ‘balanced market’, and not quite a ‘buyer’s market’, this is a great time for first-time buyers to get into the market. With the record low interest rates we are currently seeing and softening prices, this may be one of the best opportunities for young people to get into the market we’ll see in a very long time.
4) If you don't have to sell, hang on. Johnson expects that in the US sellers will continue to suffer, at least for now. Buyers, on the other hand, "know it's a buyer’s market – they are going to come in with offers below what we've appraised it at just because they know a lot of people have to sell," he says.
Despite the continued housing-market struggles, Johnson is confident that the latest downtrend is largely over. "We are headed up," he says, "but like I said, I think it is going to be slow. It will take a year or two at least."
